Trading Expectations

As we all know, when we open a trade, we look forward to it being a winner. Given the win rate of a certain trading strategy, there is a random distribution between wins and losses. However, we trade to make money with a proven strategy. The Profit Room’s strategy allows you to be confident when you place a trade. So we don’t “panic close” the trade when the market goes against us, or exit too soon when we are in profit.

If you know the expectancy of your trading strategy, you will be able to deal with these situations better. There is a psychological aspect here: knowing the predictable profitability of a larger number of trades you undertake will build your confidence, which in turn reduces your tendency to shortcut winners and to let losers run too long. Having this confidence will thereby improve your overall results.

How to determine the expectancy of your trading system? Assuming you keep records of your trades, you should go back and look at all your trades that were profitable versus all your losing trades. Do this over a period of at least 3 months and at least 100 trades. The more data you can use, the more accurate the result. We only need 4 pieces of information: number of winning trades, number of losing trades, amount of money won and amount of money lost. From this data we can calculate the following:

Net profit = amount of money won – amount of money lost

Win rate = number of winning trades / total number of trades

Lose rate = 1 – win rate

Average winner = amount of money won / total number of winners

Average loser = amount of money lost / total number of losers

Average reward / risk = average winner / average loser

Expectancy per trade = win rate x average winner – lose rate x average loser

Or, alternatively, expectancy per trade = net profit / total # trades

Expectancy per month (profit forecast) = expectancy per trade x average # trades per month

Expectancy per amount of money risked = win rate x (average reward / risk + 1) – 1

Or, alternatively, expectancy per amount of money risked = net profit / average loser / total # trades

We hope this information helps you in determining your expectancy rate of trading.

The Profit Room 

Winning Traders – What They Have In Common

We often hear that 95% of people who try trading for a living fail within the first year. These are not very good odds and it is natural for new traders to wonder if they have what it takes. In this issue, We will give you a list of 20 characteristics I believe could be found in most winners. I also included some Truths about trading.

The methods employed by winning traders are extraordinarily diverse. Despite the broad spectrum of traders, certain characteristics are found in most winning traders (in no specific order):

– Winners have a trading plan with a strategy that incorporates effective money management. They have the discipline to execute their plan relatively flawlessly and the self esteem to accept the money the market gives them.

– They use their head and stay calm – they don’t get excited or depressed because of their trades. They don’t act on emotions. They can handle success and failure without self-destructing.

– They don’t trade to feel good or to get high.

– They handle trading as a serious intellectual pursuit.

– They always protect their capital because they know they cannot trade without it. This means that they don’t get caught up in the thrill of the moment, the excitement of a running stock – they don’t jump into careless trades.

– They love trading, trading is a passion and they spend a large portion of their time trading and learning about trading.

– They know that sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing (sit on their hands). They do nothing unless there is something to do.

– They don’t pay attention to other people’s opinions, they make their own.

– They don’t try to guess the future – they know it is a game of probabilities. They understand that they will always have a percentage of losing trades but they keep the losses for those trades small. They don’t hesitate to get rid of a position when the loss is still small.

– They have a great respect for the markets and they never think taking money from it is easy.

– They behave like professionals. They take full responsibility for their actions and don’t look for something or someone to blame. Instead they use their losses as an opportunity to improve their plan.

– They trade to trade well, not for the money.

– While they are in a play, they don’t count how much money they have made or lost because they know this would influence their judgment. They focus on trading well.

– Amateurs keep thinking what trades to get into, while professionals spend just as much time figuring out their exits.

– When they have a winning position, they don’t let their emotions dictate when to close the position, which would result in small gains. They know emotions cannot be part of the decisions.

– When they enter a play, they don’t have any expectation. They understand it can go either way and that nobody can know the future.

– They have confidence in their plan, patience, and discipline.

– They are not afraid because they have developed attitudes that prevent them from getting reckless.

– They have self-monitoring skills and can continuously monitor their performance in order to improve it.

 

Some Truths about Trading

– The market is a huge crowd of people. Each member of the crowd tries to take money away from other members by outsmarting them. Everyone, including some of the brightest minds in the world, is against me and I am against everyone. It’s every man for himself. The money I want to make belongs to other people who have no intention of giving it to me.

– The market is like an ocean, it moves up and down regardless of what I want. The market does not know I exist and I cannot influence it. I cannot control the market any more than a sailor can control the ocean, but I can control my own behavior.

– Trading is all about management – managing myself, my money, my attitude, and my positions. It is not about predictions, forecasts or opinions.

– There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play (Jesse Livermore).

– Trading without imagination is like painting by numbers – and is about as rewarding (William R. Gallacher).

– The market is not going to reward anyone for observing the obvious.

– A mistake made by many traders is that they become so involved in trying to catch the minor market swings (generating lots of commissions in the process) that they miss the major price moves.

– Advisors are only wrong when you get too many of them start thinking the same thing.

– A strategy to enter and exit trades will not help you unless you are both disciplined and organized.

The Profit Room

Is Day Trading For A Living Your Cup Of Tea?

If you like working with money, then maybe day trading for a living is what you should be doing. This type of trading works daytime hours only, from the moment the stock market opens at 9:30am until it closes at 4pm in the afternoon, you can do a lot of trading in that amount of time. Day trading for livings with your own money, if you loose it, then you have no one to blame but yourself. However, it may be a good way to watch your money grow too. The following is the basic definition of what day trading is all about. Maybe it is your cup of tea, maybe not, only you can decide.

What is Day Trading?

Day trading for a living is when you take a position in the markets with a view of squaring that position before the end of that day. Day trading for a living mean a trader usually trades many times a day looking for fractions of a point to a few points per trade, however, by the end of the day he or she will close out all their positions. The goal of the day is to capitalize on price movement within one trading day. Unlike investors, the day trader will hold positions for only a few seconds or minutes, and never overnight.

What day trading really means.

The meaning of day trading is actually a misunderstood term. True day trading means not holding on to your stock positions beyond the current trading day, meaning your not suppose to hold on to your stock overnight. Trading this way is really the safest way to do day trading, this way one is not exposed to the potential losses that can happen if the stock marked is closed due to news that can affect the prices of your stocks. There are many people out there today who are not very good “day traders.” Because of greed, they will hold their stock position overnight, setting themselves up for the catastrophic elimination of their capital. In day trading currency, the term “day trading” changes slightly. Because currencies can be traded 24-hours a day, there can’t’ really be any overnight trading. You can have open positions for longer than a day with active stop losses than can be activated at any time.

There are a few different types of day traders out there today, it can actually be subdivided into a number of styles.

Scalpers- This type of day trading involves the rapid and repeated buying and selling of a large amount of stocks within minutes or seconds. The goal here is to earn a small per share profit on each transaction while minimizing the risk.

Momentum Traders- This style of day trading involves identifying and trading stocks that are in a moving pattern during the day, in an attempt to buy such stocks at bottoms and sell at tops.

The advantages of day trading for a living is there are no overnight risks. Because positions are closed prior to the end of the trading day, news and events that affect the next trading day’s opening prices do not affect your portfolio. Day trading for a living takes skill, experience, and knowledge. Make sure you get educated before you decide to take that on as your main source of income.

The Profit Room